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10 days that matter to New Delhi

November 15
Indo-US nuclear deal

The D-day may be near but not the celebration.

If the US Senate takes up for vote the Indo-US nuclear deal, the Bush administration and supporters of the deal expect 80 per cent support in the Senate. If the bill is put to vote then it means that President Bush has seen to it that the bill didn't fizzle out and the momentum that both leaderships built since July 2005 didn't go in vain.

But, the tense times will only begin with the bill becoming law in the US. After the bill is passed in the Senate the two versions of the bills (House and Senate) will be reconciled. India will react only after reading the fine print of the reconciled versions.

The critics of the bill will judge the success if any only after comparing the final version of the bill signed by President Bush into law. Prime Minister Singh's assurances in Parliament will be the benchmark for critics of the bill.

Dr Singh has enunciated India's position quite clearly and he will have to take a strong position if the final bill is not conducive enough for him to keep the promises he has made to Parliament.

K Subrahmanyam, evergreen supporter of the nuclear deal, has an argument over this issue. He says, "India will have two options if at all the Senate passes the bill now.

"If we don't like certain clauses then we may raise objections but decide to go further.

"There are certain people in India who would not read the US's deal with China but object to the final version of the bill. Under domestic pressure India may decide to not take up the process further. In that case, the entire exercise after July 2005 will be beneficial to Pakistan and China!"

Subrahmanyam anticipates that there will be quite a few non-binding clauses which India can afford to ignore. However Indian critics are unlikely to ignore the strict and impractical conditions which can collapse the supply chain of the fuel needed to run power plants because, they argue, India's case can't be compared to China which is a nuclear weapons state and the non-proliferation regime's harsh terms do not apply to it.

Dr Singh's tact and objectives will be put to greater test if and when President Bush signs the bill.

Image: US President George Bush does a thumbs up.

Photograph: Ivan Sekretarev/AFP/Getty Images
Complete coverage: President Bush in India

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