What next? International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its October 2008 report, World Economic Outlook, said that the world economy is entering a major downturn in the face of the most dangerous shock in mature financial markets since the 1930s. It has marked down global growth to 3 per cent for 2009, the slowest since 2002.
The Indian economy is also expected to slow down. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in its mid-term review of marcoeconomic and monetary developments, published a professional forecasters' survey, which suggests that the Indian economy will grow at 7.7 per cent in FY09, compared to 9 per cent in FY08. Earnings growth has also started to show a declining trend.
Earnings guidances are being revised downwards, liquidity has become scarce, markets have fallen above 60 per cent, and FIIs continue to sell. In short, the overall condition has turned against equities. So, should you be out of equities?
Outlook Money advised caution when the market was on a dizzying ride--the Sensex was up at around 21,000. Now, as the Sensex crashes to 9044.51, we are breaking out of the pessimistic babble to tell you that this is a good time to start buying stocks.
The current crisis is being termed as once-in-a-lifetime by the Western press. If the crisis is once in lifetime, so are the challenges and opportunities. And as an investor, you should grab the opportunities.
The question you may ask is whether the market will fall further? It surely can. But you need to remember that it's always difficult to catch the bottom. The market may fall further before stabilising, but start buying now. Investors entering at this stage need to hold on to their stocks for the long term.
If you are a short-term investor, stay out of the market at this stage. Buying long-term assets with short-term capital is never a good idea.
Valuations have come down significantly, even for fundamentally sound companies. We are giving you eight such options--take your pick and invest for at least three years. Invest systematically to take advantage of any further price fall.
Methodology: The companies that have been considered for selection are the ones with a market capitalisation of at least Rs 250 crore. Among them, companies with year-on-year (y-o-y) net sales and net profit growth of more than 10 per cent for the last three years and the last two quarters were retained. From this list, only companies that were able to maintain or increase their operating profit margin (OPM) and operating cash flow in the last three years were kept.
The remaining stocks were examined individually based on qualitative and quantitative measures. Click here to check out the 8 stock picks. . .
Image: A child sells copies of the country's national flag at a road junction in Mumbai. | Photograph: Sajjad Hussain/AFP/Getty Images
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