And, while official numbers will be released on December 1, 2008, the Director General of Foreign Trade says that exports are already down by 15 per cent y-o-y in October, marking the first such occasion in five years. Other experts, too, have a pessimistic view.
"It is difficult for India to boost exports in the next few months, as the global crisis has deepened, hurting demand around the world. The weak rupee may help to improve the appeal of Indian products among other Asian exports, but subdued demand means that there will be little realised benefit for Indian exporters," says Sherman Chan, economist, Moody's Economy.com.
"The moderation in external orders will hurt Indian businesses, which in turn reduce labour demand and weigh on consumption. Therefore, although India is relatively less trade dependent compared to its Asian neighbours, it is still exposed to external shocks," he adds.
In this light, expect tough times for some of them, which have a visible exposure to global markets. The hit will be on account of lesser volumes, but could also mean lower realisations.
"Companies which are dependent on the export markets or outsourcing will have a bleak future going ahead. Right now they have been protected by the dollar going up. Going ahead, the volume growth anyway is likely to decline; on top of that the dollar rate will come down. Thus, companies will have to keep on reinventing themselves," says Nandan Chakraborty, head research, ENAM Securities.
So, what should investors do? "At this point in time, it is better to stay with companies that are dependent on the domestic growth rather than the outsourcing or the export related story," says Satish Ramanathan, fund manager, Sundaram BNP Paribas Mutual Fund.
In this context, The Smart Investor looked at various sectors and companies to understand the implications of the global slowdown on them.
Image: A boy sells India's national flag. | Photograph: Pal Pillai/AFP/Getty Images
Also read: 'In Silicon valley, it is all doom and gloom'
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